It’s great to see the 2025 production season off to an early start, with crushing under way in the Burdekin and Plane Creek regions, and the Herbert commencing this week. The weather continues to cooperate, and we hope that remains the case so all regions can get sugar into the sheds.
The #11 sugar contract continues to trend lower, with little change in the global surplus production forecast. The recent UNICA report for the first half of May 2025 showed Brazilian harvest progress catching up, though it remains 20% behind the same period last year.
Cane tonnes and sugar mix have increased, but Total Recoverable Sugar (CCS) remains low. The report aligned with market expectations. However, a 5.6% drop in gasoline prices by Petrobras halted a rally, as ethanol parity fell below 15 USc/lb.
We are forecasting a small global surplus for the 2025–26 season, mainly due to another large Brazilian crop expected. Indian production also looks strong, supported by an early monsoon, with forecasts of 32.5 million tonnes for 2025–26, up from 26 million in 2024–25. In Thailand, weak cassava prices are likely to result in another bumper crop, reinforcing export competition.
Our 2025 Season Commencement of Crush Pool reports were released last week. Notably, the Allocation Account forecast is significantly lower than last year due to a drop in physical premiums. This reflects increased Thai production impacting our sales into traditional Asian markets.
Additionally, the US Quota estimate has been reduced for both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with import tariffs now factored in. It’s still early in the season, but growers should be aware that the strong physical premiums of recent years are under threat.
Across the regions, we’ve been connecting with growers at events such as the inaugural Link2Country Expo in Ingham, and the Sweet Days, Hot Nights Festival and Australian Hand Cane Cutting Championships in the Burdekin.
Our Burdekin Relationship Manager, Fiona Villis, presented the Under 35 Category awards at the Cane Cutting Championships, proudly sponsored by Wilmar Sugar and Renewables.
Wilmar’s Grower Marketing Relationship Manager, Fiona Villis, right, presenting the awards for the Under
35 Category at the Australian Hand Cane Cutting Championships. Keith Gilbert won first place, Stuart
Gilbert second place and Angus Gilbert third place. Photo supplied
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